We’ll parse through ownership narratives and identify trends with UFCollective’s ownership percentage projections, an asset in building a DraftKings lineup with the right mix of chalk and contrarian plays.
WEEK 5 RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
For NFL Week 5 DraftKings featured slate with games at 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. ET.
Week 5 NFL DFS Ownership Projections: Quarterback
With Packers-Cowboys nearly a touchdown ahead of the slate’s other Vegas totals, pen Aaron Rodgers ($8,100) and Dak Prescott ($6,800) each in for double-digit ownership. UFCollective’s ownership report doesn’t see another QB sniffing 10 percent.
Andy Dalton ($6,000) and Tyrod Taylor ($5,000) get mint pricing for their historical floor and ceiling. Cincy nearly dialed a shut out last week, while Buffalo just stifled the Falcons in Atlanta, so this caps both at medium-owned. The sub-40 Vegas total could even push them closer to the low end of QB ownership.
Week 5 NFL DFS Ownership Projections: Running Back
Le’Veon Bell ($9,500), Ezekiel Elliott ($8,800) and Todd Gurley ($8,000) have affirmed they’re locks for 20-plus touches, and none of them face a red opponent rank, so it’s a chalk party at the top. Gurley’s the highest with Seattle only the 12th-stingiest for opposing backs thus far in DraftKings scoring.
LeSean McCoy ($7,800) could be contrarian, as not only will most devote cap to the $8K backs, but again the public’s probably staying away from Bills-Bengals altogether. … Melvin Gordon ($6,000) draws too many concerns about injury and low usage the past two weeks, which should depress his ownership despite a deflated price.
WEEK 5 DFS:DK cash lineup | DK GPP | FD GPP | FD cash | Y GPP | Values | Stacks | DFS lineup builder
Week 5 NFL DFS Ownership Projections: Wide Receiver
The Rodgers and Dak stacks will lead to even more shares of Dez Bryant ($6,500) and Jordy Nelson ($8,100), maybe even approaching ownership for a quarter of the field. … Larry Fitzgerald ($6,800) saved the popular play in OT last week and should go highly owned yet again.
Odell Beckham ($8,500) messed his finger and did a fair share of limping last week. Injury concerns could cap him at medium-owned, but he seems good to go with a league-leading 28 targets over the past two weeks. … Sammy Watkins ($5,000) will probably go contrarian after a quiet Week 4 and a matchup with Seattle in Week 5, though he and Richard Sherman could easily line up at different positions pre-snap.
Week 5 NFL DFS Ownership Projections: Tight End
A $500 bump won’t scare people off Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($3,500). He and Evan Engram ($4,000) rank top 10 among tight ends in catches since Week 3 and offer more than $2K in cap relief from the Kelce-Ertz tier. UFCollective sees them as the chalk plays.
Jared Cook ($3,900) gets a $500 bump and EJ Manuel, so this one may go contrarian — even though Manuel targeted Cook four times at 15-plus yard depth in the fourth quarter on Sunday. … Jason Witten ($4,200) makes for the rare contarian play in Dallas, with the Packers allowing the second-fewest DK points to opposing TEs.